The Probability of God by Unwin Stephen D. Dr

Author:Unwin, Stephen D. Dr. [Unwin, Stephen D. Dr.]
Language: eng
Format: mobi
ISBN: 9781400097548
Publisher: Crown Publishing Group
Published: 2003-11-17T23:00:00+00:00

E4: Intra-Natural Miracles

D = 2

Pbefore = 33%

Apply Bayes’ theorem:

So

Pafter = 50%

The analysis box for E4 shows the implication of this number. The probability that Proposition G is true in light of evidence E4 becomes Pafter = 50%. That is, the cumulative effect of all the evidence so far has been to balance out the scales exactly. So it’s all up to the last two evidentiary areas. I, for one, am beginning to feel some sense of excitement.

E5: EXTRA-NATURAL MIRACLES

I have never witnessed an extra-natural miracle. The overwhelming odds are that you have never witnessed one either. If they truly exist, then they are rare. In our culture it is easy to be cynical about miracles. We are confronted almost daily by reports of UFOs, witchcraft, alien abductions, lake-dwelling behemoths, big-footed ape men, and fairies at the bottom of the garden. I think most of us feel relatively confident that there is no factual basis to such stories, and it is not difficult to view all reports of extra-natural miracles as part of this syndrome.

If such miracles do not occur, what would account for the reports? Deception and self-deception are the obvious explanations. Anyone who has enjoyed the performance of a professional magician knows that intellect is no impediment to being compellingly and completely deceived. Anyone who has read a tabloid while waiting in line at the supermarket checkout knows that there is no shortage of people anxious to fulfill the wish to be deceived. Then there are those who sincerely believe that they have witnessed a miracle. An ill-developed photographic image that reveals a figure where none had stood, crosses of light showing up in windows, and apparitions of the Virgin Mary are among typical reports. As someone who is fully seized of the diversity in the human condition, I would not even hazard to identify the psychological, sociological, or even biological reasons that someone would report a miracle where none had occurred. Whenever I presume to understand the rationale of a person who lacks that attribute of being me, I find a quick look at the newspaper comic strip page to be an immediate remedy to my arrogance. To see what I mean, try this. Pick up the comics section of a newspaper and select one of the comic strips at random. Read that strip through from beginning to end. Now realize that someone, somewhere is entertained by what you just read. This is a sobering reminder of human diversity and, in this case, diversity within just our society.

On the other hand, to dismiss all reports of miracles as part of the UFO syndrome would be an unjustifiably dogmatic position. So here’s the approach I will take for the purposes of this analysis. I will decline to speculate as to whether or not authentic extra-natural miracles have occurred. I have no way of knowing the answer. Furthermore, I lack confidence that I could even design a credible means of assessing the legitimacy of extra-natural miracles given that a good magician can fool me completely at a range of six inches.

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